(1) Will the elections help bring an end to the insurgency?
a. Yes, it will be the first step in establishing order 
(26% global versus 37% Middle East & North Africa) 
b. Yes, an elected government will have the mandate to fight insurgency 
(11% global, 16% Middle East) 
c. No, because it is just a symbolic exercise
(22% global, 12% Middle Eastt) 
d. No, because foreign troops still have the real power
(41% global, 35% Middle East)

(2) What impact will the threat of violence have on voters? 
a. None, the security arrangements are good 
(5% global, 11% Middle East)
b. It may scare some people 
(37% global, 48% Middle East) 
c. It will scare a lot of people 
(57% global, 42% Middle East)

(3) Considering the threat of violence and boycott, how representative will the new government be? 
a. It will represent everyone
(7% global, 13% Middle East) 
b. Fairly representative, given the circumstances
(40% global, 48% Middle East)
c. Represent only the majority community
(52% global, 39% Middle East)

(4) How could the groups that boycott elections be involved in the drafting of the constitution? 
a. Respected leaders from these groups could be picked
(29% global, 32% Middle East) 
b. Groups could nominate representatives
(27% global, 18% Middle East) 
c. Separate elections in areas where they have a majority
(12% global, 9% Middle East) 
d. No point involving them as they are not interested
(33% global, 42% Middle East) 

(5) Do you think the world community is as focused on Iraq as it was a year ago? 
a. Yes, very focused
(32% global, 40% Middle East) 
b. Yes, but only in a limited way
(42% global, 37% Middle East) 
c. No, the focus has moved away
(26% global, 23% Middle East)

(6) Will democracy prevail in Iraq and spread to the other regions in the Middle East? 
a. Yes, it will grow in strength
(26% global, 33% Middle East) 
b. No, it will be restricted to Iraq
(17% global, 20% Middle East)
c. No, even Iraq will disown it eventually
(58% global, 47% Middle East)

(7) How long should the US-led troops stay in Iraq, following the elections? 
a. They should get out immediately
(38% global, 29% Middle East) 
b. Six months
(12% global, 13% Middle East) 
c. One year or more 
(10% global, 14% Middle East) 
d. As long as it takes to establish peace
(40% global, 44% Middle East) 

Overall message. It is clear the region nearest to Iraq held more optimism than the world overall. Notably more in Iraq and the Middle East believed elections would help end the insurgency: 37% versus 26%. Nearly two-thirds thought voting would scare only some even though the rest of the world tended to believe (hope?) otherwise. People in the Middle East were also positive on the long-term. One third thought democracy would strengthen in the region. This differed from the world at large who were more pessimistic. 

A note on the survey. Iraq before the January 2005 election was extremely tough. Virtually no pollsters dared sample in face-to-face interviews and therefore telephone surveys were more common. This internet poll was completed by nearly 20,000 people and included 3,000 or so responses (about 15% of the sample) from the "Middle East and North Africa". As well as Iraq itself this includes significant neighbours – Turkey, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia – and also significant others like Egypt, Libya, and Sudan. This is virtually all countries with a close geographical and cultural connection to Iraq. 

Why the discrepancy? In some areas these are not shades of disagreement. These are chasms. They show a world out of sync with the opinions of Iraq and the Middle East. The survey does not answer why this might be but one central explanation, surely, must be regional sympathy for Iraq’s long-exploited majority. The Sunni minority may have run Iraq for four decades before 2003. But this was unfair and hopelessly corrupt. The Sunni were less than one-quarter of Iraq. They sustained power over the majority and if starting two significant wars (Iran, Kuwait) was not bad enough they mingled them with a battering sequence of repressions (Kurds, Marsh Arabs). All told millions died or were killed. How ironic, then, that one of the insurgents claimed as if it is was a problem: "The [early 2005] elections are a trap aimed at putting the Rafidha [derogatory term for Shia Muslims] in power at the expense of Sunni Muslims." About bloody time seems to be the response from the Middle East.