30/03/1981 | Monday | Decisive day 85 of 100
US President Reagan survives assassination in America

Full list  |  Top US President Ronald Reagan: 'You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man’s age-old dream – the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order – or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism.' US author Mark Green on President Reagan's Reign of Error: 'This loathing for government, this eagerness to prove that any program to aid the disadvantaged is nothing but a boondoggle and a money gobbler, leads him to contrive statistics and stories with unmatched vigor.'

USA, THE AMERICAS. Had John W Hinckley killed Ronald Reagan it would have been the fifth assassination of a sitting American president after Lincoln (killed in 1865), Garfield (1881), McKinley (1901) and Kennedy (1963). It would also have made Mr Reagan's presidency the briefest in American history for he had been in office only three months.

Doubtless he would have gone down as one of the great misfortunes for he needed three attempts to win the Republican nomination - he lost to Nixon in 1968 and Ford in 1976 - and was the oldest President ever, aged 69 on his first inauguration.  

The blue-blooded Vice President George H W Bush would have succeeded him as the forty-first president much sooner. Traditional and staid and intricately tied to establishment and southern oil interests President Bush’s governance would have differed from the former Californian actor, at least judging by the Bush presidency that finally arrived in 1988-1992. The difference in style is perhaps illuminated by the differences in their margins of victory. Reagan's defeat of Mondale in 1984 (54 million versus 37 million votes) was notably larger than Bush over Dukakis in 1988 (49 versus 42 million).

But Reagan survived to preside over two notably popular terms until 1988. It is not much of an exaggeration that America's dometic and foreign landscape changed in these years more than under any other post-war President. Certainly within ‘supply side economics’ was new thinking on low taxes and lower government spending that was the most direct counter-balance to the pre-war thinking of Roosevelt. He amassed the largest budget deficit in American history although as President Clinton discovered in the next cycle this can be good in the end. (Immediately prior to his attempted assassination Reagan had spoken in the Washington Hilton where he urged ‘Governments first duty is to protect the people, not run their lives…’) 

Reagan also injected into America’s highest office a fresh sort of biography. All post-war presidents except the school-teacher Johnson had risen through established channels. Carter, Nixon and Kennedy had ascended the Navy way through Annapolis. Eisenhower and Truman had both come through the Army and West Point. The only presidents without military background in the post-war era were Ford, who went to Yale, and Clinton, who went to Georgetown and Oxford. Reagan’s background was what polite company might call marginal. His foremost academic connection was with Eureka College in Illinois. If that was not humble enough it was liberal arts rather than law or the professions. True, Reagan served well enough in the Army during the war to leave as Captain. But it was a very Californian sort of war – no active service and a lot of time in training films. 'I was the Errol Flynn of B-movies' covers up a number of shortcomings.

The Californian had a distinctive dislike of Washington in general and especially the politicians and political class within the capital. Quips were genuinely felt: 'A friend of mine was asked to a costume ball. He slapped some egg on his face and went as a liberal economist.' During his presidency the opinion hovered somewhere between courteous (‘Trust the people. This is the one irrefutable lesson of the entire postwar period contradicting the notion that rigid government controls are essential to economic development’) and much more direct insinuation (‘Politics is supposed to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first’). He took almost a warring pride in standing not against Washington but for the people outside Washington and for what he saw as inhibiting their life. ‘Government is not a solution to our problem,’ he said. ‘Government is the problem. Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.’

He would interrupt important meetings with intriguingly surreal observations. ‘You can tell a lot about a fellow’s character by his way of eating jellybeans’ or to summarise a plot from a film he watched recently. It wasn’t just behind closed doors either. He was often disinterested in the theatre of state matters and gravitated towards lighter moments away from policy issues and the detail. He would say 'Princess David' when he meant to say 'Princess Diana' and 'costume' where he meant to say 'military uniform'.At one time he was caught inadvertantly saying he had had signed legislation to outlaw Russia forever. (Adding for good measure that 'we begin bombing in five minutes'). Presidential dozing was sufficiently routine to earn him various nicknames (The Big Sleep among them) and occurred during speeches by, among others, French President Francois Mitterrand, Italian President Alessandro Pertini and the Pope (in a one-on-one session as well). Henry Kissinger was bemused how he became Governor of California, much less President of the United States, and President Mitterrand of France asked ‘What planet is he living on?’

Old Hopalong, as some in the British press christened the star of western B-movies like Wagon Train (1963) and Cattle Queen of Montana (1954), connected intuitively with Britain’s Prime Minister Thatcher. Playfully he said she was the best man in England. Next to his instinctive loathing of Communism she was his most natural overseas anchor. That by the end of the twentieth century the alliance between the two countries was as strong as in the beginning owed much to this personal connection. Perhaps it was because they both shared marginal backgrounds; Maggie was the ex-grocer (before chemistry and Cambridge) and Ronnie was the ex-actor (before liberal arts and Eureka). Or perhaps it was because both refused to shy away from using military force when establishment figures were less decisive. President Reagan invaded three countries (Grenada in 1983, Lebanon in 1984 and bombed Libya in 1986), all with British support or at least acquiescence. Prime Minister Thatcher invaded the Falklands in 1982 with much unofficial American help.

After the fairly inept assassination attempt (only one of the six bullets fired hit the President in the chest) he checked if the surgeons were Republicans. Underlying the joke was an instinctive ability to get the most from drama. Later in recovery he apologised to his wife for not ducking – and made sure the press heard him before passing some more quips out of earshot. It was the Old Actor ensuring the audience were left wanting more.

When Reagan left office he was fairly close to the height of his popularity, at 65% approval rating. (Only one other president came close to this on leaving office, President Clinton.) He went on to have an aircraft carrier named for him and a state funeral. On the aircraft carrier, by the way, a few years before he died we are told that in a rare window of awareness Reagan was charmed by the news. Whether this actually happened we will never truly know for the Alzheimers that afflicted him for the last decade of his life was not especially documented. But it's a fair nod to the Gipper on watch as Communism ended that he joins an august list of only 20% of presidents that have had flat-tops named for them: USS Franklin D Roosevelt (commissioned 1944), USS John F. Kennedy (1968), USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (1977), USS Theodore Roosevelt (1986), USS Abraham Lincoln (1989) ,USS George Washington (1992), USS Harry S. Truman (1998), and the USS Ronald Reagan (2003). The USS George H. W. Bush (due in service 2009) perhaps bears such a name due to the influence of Reagan. 

In the 1980s Ronald Reagan received his second award for Time Magazine Person of the Year jointly with the USSR's Yuri Andropov. The 1983 award matched his original 1980 award which he won outright. (The peace-maker gesture was repeated in the 1990s when Bill Clinton won the award in 1992 and then shared it a second time with Kenneth Starr, the prosecutor responsible for the technicalities of his impeachment.)

Others in the Washington elite disliked the connection he had crafted between himself and the impending collapse of Communism. As Communism failed he was the one with the sound-bite: 'I believe that communism is another sad, bizarre chapter in human history.' Former President Ford was especially acidic: 'When you put peace, prosperity and human rights against poverty, a massive unsuccessful military program and a lack of human rights, communism was bound to collapse. 'No president, no Democrat or Republican, can claim credit for those programs. I'll tell you who deserves the credit - the American people.'

Margaret Thatcher, by contrast, also had tilted Britain on its axis and survived him politically for two years. But when the ex-grocer left Downing Street in 1990 the tears were hers. When the ex-actor left the White House the tears were not his.

08/10/1982 | Friday | Decisive day 86 of 100
Polish Communists ban Solidarity trade union

Full list  |  Top USSR Premiere Leonid Brezhnev to Polish General Jaruzelski, 1981: 'The leaders of 'Solidarity' and the counterrevolutionaries are still appearing before various audiences and making openly inflammatory speeches aimed at stirring up nationalist passions and directed against the PZPR and against socialism. The direct consequence of this hostile activity is the dangerous growth of anti-Sovietism in Poland. Lech Walensa, 1982: 'My country is in the grips of a major economic crisis. This is causing dramatic consequences for the very existence of Polish families. A permanent economic crisis in Poland may also have serious repercussions for Europe. Thus, Poland ought to be helped and deserves help.'

POLAND, EUROPE. Banning Solidarity certainly ranks high on a list of decisions with unanticipated consequences. Indeed it seems unfathomable that the Polish elite thinking seemed so persuasive at the time. Ban the relatively young trade union, inhibit social dissent, winnow the accumluation of dissent and entrench Communist control; all in one easy go. 

The banning did not work like that. Social dissent inside Poland's cities increased, not fell away, as Communist control weakened inside a key Soviet satellite state. Perhaps such an own-goal was inevitable in Poland. Stalin once compared governing the country to saddling a cow – unpredictable and messy. Churchill once joked there are few mistakes Poles have ever avoided. But underlying the barbs and the tragedies of Polish partition and history lies a more serious theme. Running through the countries traditions is a passion for personal freedom and limited government. Polish liberalism runs admirably deep and long - it was Warsaw that extinguished their monarchy around the French Revolution and well over a century before Russia slaughtered off their monarchy. So if anyone was going to challenge the Communist axis from within, it would probably be Poland. 

Solidarity’s origins dated back to the 1970s when Soviet authority was ascendant and lethal. Even then, danger be damned, dissident Polish unions sought social rights and release of (falsely) imprisoned workers. In the carefully controlled Soviet era this was radical stuff. Strikes peaked in the summer of 1980 around Gdansk. Then, nearly 20,000 workers led by an electrician barricaded themselves within the Lenin Shipyards. That electrician became famous not just in Poland but in Eastern Europe and beyond – Lech Walesa was his name. Within months Solidarity membership in Poland approached ten millions. In effect this represented most Polish workers. 

The most obvious effect of the ban was to transform Solidarity from an industrial cause to a political cause. As evidence of the transformation it was Mrs Walensa and not Mr Walensa who accepted soon afterwards the Nobel Price for Peace. Lech Walesa had accepted his award as Time Magazine's Person of the Year in 1981 without leaving Poland and again Mr Walensa would not leave Poland for fear of subsequent exile being imposed upon him. Perhaps he rather liked the drama? No ordinary trade union leader could aspire to Nobel Prizes. When British Prime Minister Thatcher visited Gdansk (some time later) she was greeted with chants not of helping improve pay or get more holidays but of ‘Send Communists to Siberia!’ 

Solidarity was unbanned within four years. Afterwards its influence swelled and in the 1988 landmark elections candidates (mostly) loyal to Solidarity won nearly all the seats they could contest. The victory extended to both the upper house and lower house. It was devastating and final proof of a turning point in the twentieth century. It had even more devastating consequences. Within a year not only the old Polish Communists were gone (they came back later though) but the Soviet Union was gone too (it never came back). Poland entered first NATO and then the European Union. As Walesa had warned the Communist leader, General Jaruzelski: ‘He who puts out his hand to stop the wheel of history will have his fingers crushed.'

13/06/1983 | Monday | Decisive day 87 of 100
American Pioneer space probe exits solar system

Full list  |  Top Robert Heinlein, American science fiction writer, 1961: 'Once the human race is established on more than one planet and especially, in more than one solar system, there is no way now imaginable to kill off the human race.' British scientist Professor Stephen Hawking, 2001: 'I don't think the human race will survive the next thousand years, unless we spread into space. There are too many accidents that can befall life on a single planet.'

USA, THE AMERICAS. During the twentieth century humans gained physical mastery of much of the planet and of space. Within earth's solar system every planet was visited in some form during the century. Whether that dominance was used for good or ill was another matter. But dominate earth they did and within the century a physical human presence arose in all of the continents, including even inhospitable Antarctica. Yet humans still confined themselves mostly, or were confined by physical realities, within the continents of this one tiny planet within a vast solar system inside an even huger universe. 

That physical limitation ended, symbolically at least, when the Pioneer 10 space probe left this solar system – having passed first Jupiter and then Neptune. Launched in 1972 to reach this point the small device no larger than a car travelled at around 50,000 kilometres an hour for a decade, making it both the fastest and the furthest-travelled man-made object from the twentieth century. (Pioneer 10 continued going, by the way, and its last radio signal was over three decades after its launch in 2003.) 

Of all the decisive moments in the twentieth century the exit of Pioneer 10 from this solar system could prove the most colossal. This is even though this first human-made object to leave this solar system did not have humans on board. The science to make that possible and safe still eludes humans and will do for some time. But the probe did contain human representations on a gold plaque. There were pictures of two humans, one male and one female, with a message of goodwill sent with a raised hand. 

The hopeful thinking was that any recipients of the probe would interpret the message positively. Arthur C Clarke said '... the rocket, far from being one of the destroyers of civilisation, may provide the safety-value that is needed to preserve it.' Those recipients may live in distant locations but may also have scientific control better than our own. From that connection who knows what could happen? New arrivals on earth to inspect the location that sent the probe? Signals beamed from distant planets in languages comprehensible to humans? 

24/04/1984 | Tuesday | Decisive day 88 of 100
AIDS virus discovered in America

Full list  |  Top US Health Secretary Margaret Heckler, 1984: 'We hope to have a vaccine ready for testing in about two years.' South African President Nelson Mandela, 2004: 'Today, I call upon all of you - every global citizen - not to forget. We must seize this opportunity to demonstrate that we share a common humanity and that it matters who my sister or brother is. We must never reduce the issue to statistics.'

USA, THE AMERICAS. If a global poll considered what was the twentieth century's ‘number one disease’, and however a number one disease might be defined, then AIDS and the virus HIV that causes it would surely top the poll. It's effects were striking. Though at the time of discovery AIDS was considered as some form of parasitic pneumonia, explaining its concentration among specific communities such as the North American homosexuals, when heterosexual cases started presenting this was radically reconsidered. A much broader view emerged. Within a few decades of this discovery the world of science, research funding, social structures and politics changed significantly and in all societies of the world, rich or poor, north or south. 

Yet at the end of the twentieth century, a couple of decades since discovery and in the century where humans gained most mastery over nature and the harm it causes them, there was still no cure. HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, had infected 40 million people around the world. It did not spread evenly. Around half of those infected were in sub-Saharan Africa. But nearly every country in the world had some people infected. 

While undoubtedly serious and devastating for specific communities this is perhaps a number to keep in perspective. It means well over 99% of humans lived lives free from AIDS. Even though the disease concentrated in some parts – in sub-Saharan Africa some communities are approaching 1-in-2 – the number of deaths annually is around four million or one-tenth of those infected. Water-borne diseases and malaria killed more.  

A base symptom of AIDS, which can appear up to a decade after HIV infection, is persistent coughing and fever. This presents as the infection attaches to more and more white blood cells. This accumulation of infected blood uses the weaker body to exploit opportunistic infections. Caused by traditional bacteria or virus or parasites that non-AIDS infected bodies could otherwise defeat the causes of AIDS-related deaths include tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, herpes, meningitis, cancers and lymphoma. 

Victims with late-stage AIDS are usually enervated and suffer weight loss. The frequent fevers and sweats experienced in the early stages continue until the end. Extreme and unexplained fatigue is also common along with deep coughing and shortness of breath. 

13/07/1985 | Saturday | Decisive day 89 of 100
Live Aid charity concert in UK and elsewhere

Full list  |  Top Fundraiser and Live Aid instigator Bob Geldof, 1985: 'Give us your fucking money!' UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, 2007: 'Twenty years ago, Live Aid achieved a staggering $200m for those suffering death by starvation. We were addressing the symptoms of poverty... Live 8 asked $25 Billion per annum for Africa to attack the structures of poverty. And Africa got it.'

BRITAIN, EUROPE. Live Aid was stimulated by a specific famine in Ethiopia and parts of Sudan. Around one million fatalities happened in the preceding months and in the summer of 1985 at least five million were dependent on Food Aid. Things had the potential to get much, much, worse. As a BBC report memorably put it the situation was ‘a biblical famine’ (Michael Buerk). 

Television footage of the BBC and others awakened a sense of charity never before seen in the western world – or since, according to some views on donor fatigue. The concert was one creation of this, opened with Status Quo setting the moment alive with their opening song of Rocking all over the world. 

Yet the tragedy in 1985 was not really Ethiopia per se. That was a specific symptom. The underlying malaise was Africa at a continental level. In the three or so decades since de-colonization the continent had spirraled into problems. Prior to Live Aid something in the order of 50 coups had happened in just two decades – around two every year – and a dozen or more presidential assassinations. Only South Africa and a few other countries in southern Africa escaped with a modicum of stability and economic wealth, though in the case of South Africa at the high cost of apartheid and white minority rule. 

Partly the African mess that Live Aid orientated itself around was created by former colonial powers. Once the prospect of mineral or agricultural incomes disappeared they lost interest in public administration. Partly, however, and in a much larger measure problems like one million dead Ethiopians and Sudanese was down to corrupt and greedy and uncaring African leaders. They turned out to be far worse than colonial rule. 

The Africa-wide dimension did not concern Live Aid. Bob Geldolf’s plea was simple. If western governments would not act to solve at least the Ethiopian/Sudan tragedy then western individuals would. The concert was free provided people donated money. That money would buy trucks and food and seeds. As he put it, just ‘give us the fucking money’. This Irish directness resonated around the event and produced some wonderful and memorable events. One rich Arab family donated a million pounds. But for all of the talk of ground-breaking shifts in consciousness Live Aid raised only US$250 million. Certainly much better than nothing at all. Yet well over a billion watched in over a hundred countries, translating to well under a dollar raised per head. That marginal per-head donation was a tragedy not only for Africa but for the world. 

13/09/1985 | Friday | Decisive day 90 of 100
Nintendo launches Super Mario computer game in Japan

Full list  |  Top US President Ronald Reagan, 1983: 'I recently learned something quite interesting about video games. Many young people have developed incredible hand, eye, and brain coordination in playing these games. The air force believes these kids will be our outstanding pilots should they fly our jets.' Microsoft founder Bill Gates: 'Personal computers have become the most empowering tool we've ever created. They're tools of communication, they're tools of creativity, and they can be shaped by their user.'

ITALY, EUROPE. The release of the Super Mario Brothers video game, a creation from Nintendo in Italy, was amongst the most important milestone in twentieth century entertainment. Named for Mario Mario and his brother Luigi the game and set of characters ignited one of the few global entertainment revenue streams able to compete with Hollywood or Bollywood. Computer gaming, in short, shifted during the late twentieth century from a minority activity into mass entertainment.

Super Mario quickly sold on a mammoth scale to millions of households. The small and innovative console, the hand-held machine that gamers used to play, worked well in America. Altogether, the Mario franchise had by the end of the century and after a mere twenty years sold upwards of 180 million games. That equates to an astonishing 25,000 units sold daily. 

Nintendo soon faced competition. The gaming industry overall, so that is Nintendo plus other manufacturers around the world such as Sony’s Play Station 2 and Microsoft’s XBox, make sales in America approaching US$8 billion each year. Europe and Asia are not far behind. With tens of billions of dollars of sales it is little surprise that video games have altered the selling strategy for some 'traditional films'. Previously sold on a theatre-then-video model, mainstream movies now sell on a theatre-plus-games-then video business model. Gaming has altered the dynamics of movies. 

True, the gaming story has not all been positive. Simple themes like Donkey Kong and the search for a damsel in distress have given way to darker and more controversial themes. Games now have names like 'Hitman 2: Silent Assassin' or 'Judge Dredd: Dredd Versus Death' or 'Prince Of Persia: Warrior Within' or 'True Crime: Streets Of LA'. Predictably this foments concerns that video games have helped imprint negative behaviours on twentieth-century youth. Youth violence is said to echo themes of some games.  

Perhaps, to a point. But negative impacts focused exclusively on youth is a little difficult to square with the demographics of who plays the games. Half of Americans play computer or video games some of the time. But it is so pervasive that most are adults under 40. Only a third of gamers are under 18. In short, and like rock and roll which emerged in the 1950s, twentieth-century computer gaming is as much about the adults as the kids.  

26/04/1986 | Saturday | Decisive day 91 of 100
Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine, USSR

Full list  |  Top Scientist Albert Einstein: 'The discovery of nuclear reactions need not bring about the destruction of mankind any more than the discovery of matches.' USSR government statement, April 26, 1986: 'Levels of pollution exceed the permitted norms by a small amount, but not to an extent that calls for special measures to protect the population.'

RUSSIA, EUROPE. The Chernobyl explosion and then fire dominated not only Ukrainian psyche but European and worldwide views of nuclear power. It far exceded the psychological impact from 1984 when the Union Carbide chemical plant at Bhopal in India had leaked toxic gas that killed over 6,000 people and started decades of law suits.

Yet by the end of the twentieth century the disaster had altered not very much. While it solidified fear of nuclear power around the globe it did not eliminate the (often reluctant) acceptance that nuclear power still represented one large part of the solution to increased energy needs. 

Undoubtedly Chernobyl was striking because radioactive particles from the damaged reactor did not stay local. They spread for thousands of kilometers – first to Belarus, then to Russia, then to western Europe. Indeed the trouble was first announced not by the Soviet Union but hundreds of miles away in Scandinavia. 

It was also a striking insight to what can happen when nuclear power lies in the hands of unresponsive authorities. It is true that when the Scandinavian reports surfaced of elevated levels of radiation the Communist authorities admitted light water reactor #4 had overheated – but this only happened after three days. Soviet leader Gorbachev only spoke out on the true scale of the disaster after a fortnight. Meanwhile much damage had happened that might have been avoided or at least lessened. The nearby town,  home to 40,000 people, only evacuated after 36 hours. As the reactor burned on for at least nine days over 50 tons of debris spread up to three miles. Five million people lived in the contaminated areas – far more than those who lived in Hiroshima and Nagsaki during the 1940s bombing. 

But for all these striking problems and public administration fiasco Chernobyl did not kill off acceptance that nuclear power would have to stay in some form. Perhaps the world took note that prior to the disaster Gorbachev had publicly called for nuclear power to double. Maybe this led to cutting corners and pressure on staff to increase capacity for the nearby mega-city of Kiev. But it was also a statement of reality.